Its almost one and half month since I wrote a post related to some political stuff. Not because I was too busy doing other things, but the fact is for the past 2-3 months, our politically unstable country was very stable. Nothing much was happening in the arena, except those regular cry outs about inflation. The all time favourite cast issue, and as always accusations of politics being played in name of religion [it is not that the land dispute of Amarnath Shrine board was something to ignore, but similar things have already been discussed so many times]. Left’s warning of withdrawing support if the government planned to go ahead with the nuclear deal [which had started appearing like a daily mantra, to be enchanted in the media to show that they also exists]. But then 2 days ago, the Left sent the country into a political turmoil it was talking about for a long time now. They declared the withdrawal of [external] support to the UPA government and making them short of required numbers.
Thanks to Left, the country is politically awakened now, and we have something new to talk about [no matter for how much brief amount of time].
Well the game of getting the exact number has already begun. With Samajwadi Party [SP] pledging their support the UPA seems to be driving home comfortably, but then there is a rift in SP too, which can cause some last minute complications. Also even after the full SP support they will be short of the number and getting those crucial votes is a big task. But congress is a seasoned player. They know how to defend their turf and the fielding for the same has already begun.
That is all for the UPA, let them do their maths to reach the final figure. The road for the NDA too is not straight. Keeping all the allies together and making them vote accordingly is easier said then done. Keeping the allies intact and statistics favourable is never easy in coalition politics. With everyone ready to flee with a better opportunity, the small king makers plays a big role. On the very first day sadly for BJP, SAD [Shiromani Akali Dal] declared their support to the government on nuclear deal, but then sadly for UPA now SAD is back with NDA [which will be happy now with coming of SAD. This SAD seems very sadist].
Now the main architect of the current scenario i.e. the Left seems to be in a sticky situation. There are two possibilities about the Left’s course of action on the D-day. One they vote against the government, and the chances are we will have early general elections. The second, it abstains from the voting, on the pretext of not voting with the BJP and allows the government to continue.
Right now Left does not seems to be in a healthy condition in their strong holds. An early general election is the last thing they want. So letting the government run without its support [internal or external] will provide them with time for damage control. They can start with their government bashing programme on full scale, which earlier was not that much pronounced. Moreover maintaining their adamant stance against arch ideological rivals i.e. the BJP will also not alienate their vote bank.
Although if they abstains from the voting and the government survives, PM will go ahead with the much talked and opposed nuclear deal. In such case face saving for the Left will be very difficult, as although indirectly, but they will make it possible for the government to go ahead with a deal which was the cited reason behind all this fuss. But then again voting with the BJP [means upsetting a major section of their committed vote bank] and having early elections is not in best of their interests. In a nut shell it is the left which is right now in a clumsy position, and no matter what course of action they take, they will surely be at a loss.
It is very difficult to say right now what will happen when the government faces vote of confidence. With the unpredictable nature of players like BSP and Left being unclear of what exactly it wants anything can happen. As a matter of fact whatever the result might come out, whether there is an early election [which under all circumstances will be held sometime near November, when a number states goes for assembly elections] or as per the schedule near April I don’t see what difference it will make. Except for the fate of the unclear nuclear deal, nothing much will change in terms of the electoral mandate.