The countdown for the Lok Sabha elections can begin anytime and like the recent past any single party winning a clear majority is not possible. The coalition politics will play an important role in the power game and whose equation sets with whom, will decide about the future prime minister. All the parties are well aware of the reality and hence they have already started gearing up for them.
BJP is the frontrunner as far as the preparation part goes. Upbeat with the assembly wins they are not leaving any stone unturned. Whether it is declaration of the prime ministerial candidate or Mr. Modi having lunch with Ms. Jayalalitha, they all tell us one thing, they mean serious business this time. Unlike 2004 the Saffron party is not at all complacent and is not getting carried away with feel good.
On the other hand, the congress right now seems to be very dormant and the only thing in which its leaders are busy these days, is trying to meet the supremo in not so good health, to mark their presence and earn some marks.
Apart from these two, there are other numerous parties, but there is one which can give everyone a run for their money. BSP is not just any other regional party as it simply does not represent any region. The crux of BSP is the dalit vote, and they are not present in any one particular region but in the entire country. In simple words, if any other party apart from the above two mentioned has the potential to provide Bharat with its prime minister in the current scenario, then it is the BSP. It has the potential with no bounds, and what it has done to congress in UP, can do it in the whole country.
In UP BSP won on its social engineering and receiving the popular dalit vote. The vote, to which earlier congress was entitled, is now BSP’s piece of pie. In fact this very fact that both share same vote bank, makes congress more vulnerable to BSP than BJP. BJP is an altogether different political party whose core voter is entirely different from the congress one and hence it cannot cause them harm to the extent BSP can.
Majority of the seats which BSP wins in next general elections will be a dent in the congress’s shield. And the story does not end here, a substantial amount of seats BJP will win because of the cut in the vote which BSP will bag. Bringing dalits and Brahmins together is no Childs play, but Mayawati did it and that too with precision. Some believe that she can’t repeat UP elsewhere, but this belief is based upon flawed presumptions. She is emerging as a supplement to congress for dalits.
A coalition always takes place between two parties to support each other at places where they cannot sustain life on their own. The basic funda behind this game is to carry your partner at places of despair. Why BJP managed a successful coalition? Simply because the NDA members are not competing for each others vote at any place. They all have a different standing and their own very well bifurcated votes. What Ms. Uma Bharati plans to do to BJP, the BSP is presently doing to congress. And due to this fact only congress needs to rethink there whole strategy regarding BSP.
Very unlikely, but the only way congress can minimize the damage is by joining forces with BSP prior to elections and sharing seats amicably. BSP has got nothing to lose, some might say except UP. Whatever number of seats it wins is an icing. But the congress has a lot to lose here, and BSP is emerging as a major factor in this. If congress manages to get BSP along, then it might not prove to be beneficial directly. But the amount of damage it will prevent is bigger than any direct benefit. But neither the congress nor the BSP are in any kind of coalition mood with each other. Moreover the dubious past of BSP regarding coalition ethics and the current game plan will defer not only congress but anyone in getting in any such agreement.
If Mayawati harbours the dream of Prime Ministership, than she needs to work for long time benefits and she is doing the same. As far as congress is concerned they are not in a position to negotiate and the damage control measure is entirely out of their reach and a risky course of action. So except watching Mayawati doing the inevitable harm they can not do anything else.
What happened in UP can happen in the rest of the country, but it will not happen on its own. Ms. Mayawati needs to project herself as the dalit messiah of the country. To gain mileage across the country she needs to demonstrate that congress is the culprit and she is a victim, and this is exactly what she did by accusing them of planning her murder.